• Make better predictions and decisions by using machine learning to model events and your own past decision accuracy. 
  • Take advantage of human and machine confidence calibration. 
  • Incorporate data on base rates into your decision process.  
  • Use Bayesian updating to improve your future predictions.
Many people make decisions without tracking the results of those decisions. This makes it challenging to improve the quality of one's decision making. The first step towards improvement is measuring the current baseline of decision effectiveness. Determining appropriate decision effectiveness metrics can provide an accurate picture of where things are now.